 Article:
Moving on Up: The Possible Impact of Climate Change on Forest Habitats
This article is from Issue Climate Change Edition - Vol. 14 No. 1.
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Journal Lesson Plan
Reflection Section Answer Guide
Climate Change Word Search
Climate Change Word Scramble
Meet the scientists that contributed to this article:
"Science Topics" covered in this article:
- Earth Science
- Life Science
- People and Science
- Technology and Science
"Thinking About Science Themes" covered in this article:
When scientists study climate change, they
often look toward the future. The job of these
scientists is to predict what might happen as
the climate changes over time. Because no one
knows for sure what will happen in the future,
predicting it is a big challenge for scientists.
In general, scientists take two main steps to
predict what might happen.
First, they look at past or current situations.
Often, scientists track what has happened
over time, from a time period in the past to the
present. This is called a trend. For example,
scientists have tracked changes in the average
yearly temperature since 1880 (figure 1).
The second thing scientists do to predict
the future is create a computer model. A model
is a mathematical representation of a system.
For example, consider figure 1. If everything
continues to be the same in the future as it was
in the past, scientists can imagine what the line
in figure 1 might look like in the future. They do
this by taking the same information collected in
the past and applying it to the future. Scientists
studying climate change sometimes use different
models to represent different possible futures.
This is because what happened in the past
might be different than what will occur in the
future. In the case of rising temperatures, for
example, scientists might consider both a future
with a small rise in average temperatures, and one with a larger rise in average
temperatures.
In this study, the scientists
used one model that assumed
people will continue to burn
fossil fuels at an increasing
rate for decades into the future.
They used another model that assumed people
will conserve fuels by doing things like driving
less and using less electricity. In the second
model, the amount of carbon dioxide emitted
to the atmosphere was expected to be less than
the amount emitted in the first model.Specific "Thinking About Science" Themes:
- Characteristics of Scientists
- The Scientific Process
"Thinking About Environmental Themes" covered in this article:
Almost everyone lives in a community. Did
you know that trees live in communities too?
These communities are different than human
communities. Forest communities are made up
of different species of trees that are commonly
found living in the same area. Foresters name
these forest communities after the most
common species of trees living there.
The scientists in this study were interested
both in individual species of trees and in forest
communities. To understand
how forest communities
might change in the future,
the scientists had to study
individual species of trees.
They did this because although
trees in the same community live in the same
general habitat, some trees can survive in
other habitats as well. As the climate changes,
therefore, some trees in the community might
die off, and others might survive. If this happens,
the forest community will change.Specific "Thinking About the Environment" Themes:
NSE Standards covered in this article:
- Diversity and adaptations of organisms (C)
- Nature of science (G)
- Populations and ecosystems (C)
- Regulation and behavior (C)
- Risks and benefits (F)
- Science as a human endeavor (G)
- Understandings about science and technology (E)
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